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Commodity Currencies Continue to push higher against the Greenback

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Old 04-07-10, 08:53 AM
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Default Commodity Currencies Continue to push higher against the Greenback

EURUSD:
There are many ways to trade and an endless amount of technicals a trader can look at. The key is to keep it simple and keep it consistent. We focus a lot of attention on Moving Averages as a means for measuring price action. As far as chart patterns go we always look for a Step pattern. The Step pattern is simple indicator and easy to identify, what's more, and unlike other charting tools, you do not need to make any adjustment to it based on chart Tenor. On the Chart below we have the main MA's, the 50, 100 and 200. The MA's indicate that the EUR is definitely in a bearish environment. Using the step pattern on the chart it would seem that if the EUR falls below near term Support at 1.3315 it will likely continue to drop as it would make a new lower low in the current Step pattern.

EURJPY:
On occasion it is good practice to see how a currency you are trading is behaving versus other crosses. In the example we take the EUR versus JPY. Since the JPY has been the weakest currency against the Dollar over the last several weeks it acts as a good barometer to analyze the EUR's overall strength. The EUR has been the more dominant of the two, however, it only climbed as high as the 100 day MA before retracing it's gains. We also see a clean inverse Head & Shoulders pattern complete itself just a few candles ago. A close back below the neckline would suggest further weakness may be ahead for the EUR.

USDCHF:
After reaching a high of 1.09 the CHF retraced its losses and hit a period of consolidation. The CHF nearly broke the 200 day MA, but could not close below that level. The CHF has since closed back above the 50 day MA. More troubling for the CHF is that the 100 MA is about the break above the 200 day MA. That leaves the 50, 100 and 200 MA's in numeric order, which usually suggest prices will climb higher. A close above near term Support at 1.0720 may cause the CHF to depreciate further as the Moving Averages look to fall into order.
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