FX Times: Daily Technical Update EUR/USD Monitoring for Correction

[cmsfx]

Fan Yang \ 10:32 AM EST \ December 15th, 2009

EUR/USD in Minor correction


* 4H and 1H: Instead of a Gartley retracement pattern, the market was in a triangle congestion pattern in the Asian session, but nonetheless broken below and has reached our 1.4520 projection – though this was a swing projection for the Gartley; the projection of the triangle is further lower to about 1.4500. (Refer to Daily Technical Update 12.14.2009 EUR/USD and Daily Video Technical Update 12.14.2009).
* The decline came in the European session, after volatility shrank in a symmetrical triangle. There may be further decline in the US session towards 1.4500. Although the short-term bearish outlook has reached a swing projection area, the pair may still decline in the intermediate term. As the market is in a support area, short positions may want to consider fast exit methods such as the parabolic. Even the candlestick action as I speak indicates short-term bullish attempt.
* In the 4H time-frame we see that the market is testing a channel support. The stochastic reading in both 4H and 1H time-frames suggest short-term correction is due. A hold of the short-term powerline as resistance at 1.4590 would be a significant indication of bearish strength. The stochastic on the Daily (below) is also oversold, and suggests even a longer than just a short-term correction.
* Reconsideration of further decline to should come from a re-establishment of a significant top below the previous 1.5100 peak. A possible top would be the 1.4800-1.4900 area, coincident to re-test of 50-Day MA, and 50-61.8% retracement.
* This projection in the below Daily time-frame should not be mistaken as a current projection, but as a possible scenario that would deserve major reconsideration of bearish outlook.


Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
Via fxtimes.com

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