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Buy Gold

01 Dec (My apologies this should have gone up yesterday...)

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4800

Key G7 support levels: 1.5000/4980, 1.4920, 1.4820

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Interesting week as the JPY strengthened sharply against the euro and the dollar, whilst the euro broke to new recent highs vs. the dollar. This has turned the euro weekly direction bullish and we have a new weekly reversal level at 1.4800. The markets are messy to say the least, but that’s what is to be expected as we near year end. Caution is required and assumptions to be avoided like the plague! Whilst above 1.4800, we’ll look to buy the euro into dips, with first support levels at 1.5000/4980 (the major one – having been the previous range top for several months) Below that we have 1.4920 and 1.4820. Watch and wait for a clear reversal pattern to form
before buying and make sure you have firm stops in place! Target for longs is the weekly 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.5240 and then (if this fails to withstand) 1.6000, the all-time high.

Summary:
Buy dips to 1.5000/4980 or 1.4920 after a clear G7 entry signal, target 1.5240 and then 1.6000.

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07th Dec
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.5145
Key G7 resistance levels: 1.4950, 1.4980, 1.5000, 1.5020
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Well, the jobs report sure got things going, this time – South, for the euro. We have performed a beautiful “bearish engulfing candle” with a “spike high” on the weekly chart, and this means that we’ll be looking to sell euros this week. Resistance levels are neatly defined above the current price, so it won’t be hard to pick the spot to enter. Watch and wait for a clear G7 reversal pattern before entering, remembering that these thin markets
can lead to large retracements. Don’t enter too soon and don’t make assumptions. Key resistance lies either side of the 1.5000 area, with 1.4942 being the first, at the 38% Fibonacci zone. Whilst it’s hard not to be sceptical of last week’s reversal, year-end markets often present ideal technical trading opportunities and this week could provide an excellent opportunity to profit from the euro!

Summary:
Sell rallies to 1.5020/30, 1.4950/4980 after a clear G7 entry signal, target 1.4650.

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Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.5145
Key G7 resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4850, 1.4900, 1.4950
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
7 December:
Well, the jobs report sure got things going, this time – South, for the euro. We have performed a beautiful “bearish engulfing candle” with a “spike high” on the weekly chart, and this means that we’ll be looking to sell euros this week. Resistance levels are neatly defined above the current price, so it won’t be hard to pick the spot to enter. Watch and wait for a clear G7 reversal pattern before entering, remembering that these thin markets can lead to large retracements. Don’t enter too soon and don’t make assumptions. Key resistance lies either side of the 1.5000 area, with 1.4942 being the first, at the 38% Fibonacci zone. Whilst it’s hard not to be sceptical of last week’s reversal, year-end markets often present ideal technical trading opportunities and this week could provide an excellent opportunity to profit from the euro!

Update 10 December: Excellent opportunity it was, and the euro is still moving steadily (but not dramatically) downwards. Key resistance levels, starting at 1.4800, will provide areas to sell into during the rest of this week. Target for the shorts is 1.4620 and then 1.4500.

Summary:
Sell rallies to resistance levels (especially 1.4800/50 after a clear G7 entry signal, target 1.4620.
________________________________________

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14th Dec

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4905
Key G7 resistance levels: 1.4780/4800, 1.4860, 1.4930
Counter-trend opportunities: 1.4500/1.4480
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
The euro continued to drop last week, mainly due to a late dollar rally on Friday. Some have called this an “unrelenting” dollar rally, but I could hardly agree with that – this correction is a normal part of the process and we
could well see further dollar weakness before year end. However, we’ll go with the flow for now, and look to sell euros whilst below the weekly reversal level (now at 1.4905) resistance levels lie overhead at 1.4780/1.4800 (key)
and then slightly higher at 1.4860. Watch and wait for a clear G7 reversal signal before selling, stops above the reversal candles, and target around 1.4680 and then maybe 1.4600. Counter trend longs could be tried at
1.4500/4480 after a reversal pattern.

Summary:
Sell rallies to resistance levels

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Happy Holidays,

Thank you for your support these last few months. We are off on a break now until the 15th January 2010. Until then keep well and stay safe.
Cheers,

James & Chris.

PS. If you missed these here are some webinar links from yesterday with the OU guys…

Presentation Webinar


Q & A Webinar

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Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4255

Key G7 support levels: 1.4450/80, 1.4280

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
It’s about time! The euro spent most of the holiday month ranged between 1.4300 and 1.4450, and this morning seems to be the day it’s decided enough. 1.4450/80 is now the key support level, and we’ll look to buy dips to this level during this week. As we have only just broken out, a lot depends on how high and how fast we rally today
and tomorrow, and we may have to adjust the support zone higher before we get a chance to buy. Weekly support lies at 1.4255, and as long as we remain above there, the strategy to buy dips will remain unchanged this week!

Summary:
Buy dips 1.4450/80 after a clear G7 entry signal, target 1.4580.

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Update: No change. A chance to enter the trade today, now that all the entry conditions are lined up

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18th January

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4320

Key G7 support levels: 1.4320/50

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Despite last week performing a “higher high and higher low”, the candle spike high is a concern for bullish traders. However, this also gives us an opportunity to get into a long position this morning with a tight stop and a
weekly reversal level only 10-20 pips below us at the time of writing this. We’ll know if we are wrong very quickly.
Whilst above 1.4320 I’m looking to buy the euro with a target of around 1.4420 (the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week’s high) or perhaps even 1.4450 (see chart – previous support and the 50% Fibonacci level). We are still in a consolidation phase with the key medium term support at 1.4220 still holding after 4 weeks of first contact. This week should be a decisive one, probably with a strong break higher.

Summary:
Buy dips 1.4320/50 after a clear G7 entry signal, target 1.4420/50.

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Update 20 January: Weekly direction now reversed. Stay out of this pair until Monday!

Summary:
Stay out.

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