Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company
This is a discussion on Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company within the Market News forums, part of the Market Discussions category; Analysts on Switzerland’s GDP According to the data released today, Switzerland’s GDP increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, while ...
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#31
03-01-11, 03:09 PM
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Analysts on Switzerland’s GDP
According to the data released today, Switzerland’s GDP increased by 0.9% in the fourth quarter, while the economists were looking only for 0.5% advance. Analysts at Credit Suisse say that the report shows that there’s no imminent downturn in economic momentum in the months ahead. The specialists note that consumer demand, investment and trade of goods all expanded at a solid pace. Never the less, according to Credit Suisse, strong franc will seriously affect exports, so they see 2011 economic growth at rather moderate level of 1.9%. Strategists at UniCredit called Swiss GDP advance in the fourth quarter “very strong” and raised 2011 forecast for the country’s economic growth from 1.8% to 2.5%. In their view, despite the strong rate of the national currency that’s negative for exports it's possible to suggest that Switzerland’s economic expansion will continue at the beginning of 2011. 
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#32
03-01-11, 03:11 PM
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Mizuho: EUR/USD may rise to 1.4000
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the single currency has jumped from yesterday’s minimum at 1.3710 and reached resistance at 1.3860. In their view, the possibility of the day’s close above 1.3900 has so far increased. This, in its turn, will trigger short covering. The same effect will be from the weekly close above 1.3900. The next target of the pair EUR/USD is at 1.4000. 
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#33
03-01-11, 03:14 PM
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UBS: AUD/USD forecast’s increased
Australian dollar dipped to 1.0148 versus its US counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, so the players who were looking forward to more hawkish RBA statement got disappointed. However, the pair AUD/USD has already gone up to 1.0180 to compensate today’s losses. Analysts at UBS note that the demand for Aussie remains high. The specialists lifted up their month forecast for Australia’s currency from 0.9700 to 1.0000. The 3-month forecast was raised from 0.9300 to 0.9800. According to the strategists, the market will be now waiting for the rate’s hike next month. 
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#34
03-01-11, 03:17 PM
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Barclays Capital: USD/CAD will fall to 0.9500
Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the pair USD/CAD to fall down to 0.9500 in the next few months as it broke below the trend line support from the Augusts maximum in the 1.0670 zone. According to the specialists, the greenback may bounce from the 0.9660/0.9710 area, but the recovery will be short-lived and the bulls will give up. 
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#35
03-01-11, 03:19 PM
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Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD
British pound recovered from Friday’s minimum versus the greenback at 1.6070 getting above 1.6300 and reaching 1-year maximum at 1.6330. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that is the pair the pair GBP/USD manages to hold above 1.6300, it will head to the 1.6400/45 area limited by the double Fibonacci retracement and the downtrend from 2007 to 2011. The topside of this area will provide enough resistance to make sterling fail, says the bank. If 1.6300 keeps constraining GBP/USD advance, the rate may drop to 1.6100. According to Commerzbank, pound will remain under bullish pressure as long as it trades above support at 1.5963. 
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#36
03-01-11, 03:21 PM
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CIBC: USD/JPY will rise to 89.00 by the year-end
Analysts at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce expect that US dollar will begin strengthening versus Japanese yen from the middle of the year. In their view, by then US economic outlook improves and the Federal Reserve will start regarding the possibility of tightening its monetary policy. According to CIBC, the pair USD/JPY will climb to 87.00 area in the second quarter, then rise to 88.00 in the third quarter and end 2011 at 89.00. 
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#37
03-01-11, 03:29 PM
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Societe Generale: EBC may not hike until 2012
Economists at Societe Generale think that the more hawkish remarks we’ve been hearing from the central banks may actually be wrong-footed. The high inflation is being driven by the supply concerns in the oil market that means that it’s very negative for the global economy in terms of growth. The specialists believe that this is not something the central banks should be responding to by hiking interest rates. The concern is on the second round effects that would come but that will require a very long period of higher oil prices. And this is where the ECB expresses its second concern – the demand side that is driving commodities from the stronger growth in emerging markets. However, the core inflation in Europe shows that there’s really no indication of second-round effects coming through, so it’s too early to call for the ECB rate hikes from the current inflation picture. According to Societe Generale, the ECB could wait until 2012. There’s the second dimension about which the central banks don’t like to talk much but which is very important – this is the financial stability and the sovereign debt crisis. It could be much harder for the ECB to hike rates than the market’s currently pricing, as the central bank has to take into account not only the rising oil prices, but also the threats to the region’s financial stability.
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#38
03-02-11, 09:46 PM
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B]Bernanke: inflation risk in US remains low[/B]
Yesterday’s speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke allows suggesting that the Fed won’t hurry to raise interest rates after the $600 billion quantitative easing program is completed by the end of June. In his view, inflation risk isn’t high, while the situation on the labor market is still difficult. Bernanke believes that the surge in commodity prices won’t generate a lasting rise in inflation. For the economic recovery to be sustained, the Fed’s benchmark rate will has to stay low for an “extended period”. Bernanke pledged to act if higher commodity prices persist, spurring inflation and increasing inflation expectations, though currently the head of US central bank sees no necessity for such actions. The Fed’s Chairman will continue his monetary policy testimony today. Bernanke will begin speaking in front of the House Financial Services Committee in Washington at 3 p.m. GMT.
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#39
03-02-11, 09:49 PM
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Bof T-Mitsubishi: US dollar will strengthen versus euro by the year-end
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the greenback may rise to the levels at which it traded versus the European currency in September. Such forecast is based on the reviving of US economy and possibly waning expectations of the rate hikes by the developed nations’ central banks. The specialists expect US dollar to climb to $1.27 per euro and 92 yen in a year. The dollar estimates were reduced from the previous prediction of $1.20 per euro made before a surge in oil prices in February led US currency lose 0.8% versus its European counterpart. US economic growth is going to be strong surpassing economists’ expectations. The data so far seems to be quite encouraging – the country’s manufacturing grew in February at the fastest pace in almost 7 years. ISM factory index rose from 60.8 in January to the maximal level since May 2004 at 61.4. So, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, such solid performance of American economy is going to drive US dollar up. The bank also underlines that the markets are pricing in too much in terms of the ECB rate hikes in the next 12 months and most likely will get disappointed that will be a negative factor for the single currency. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi projects that the pair EUR/USD will rise to $1.40 in 3 months due to the increase in oil prices. Japanese yen will decline to 85 per dollar during this period. 
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#40
03-02-11, 09:51 PM
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Mizuho: EUR/USD will rise in March at least to 1.4000
The single currency advanced from minimums in the 1.3425 area hit in the middle of February and met resistance at 2011 maximum at 1.3860. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD will finally manage to break above this level. In their view, in March euro will climb at least to 1.4000 and possibly to November’s maximum at 1.4281. The specialists underline that momentum for the pair has become bullish. Bullish pressure will decline if EUR/USD falls below 1.3300. In such case this forecast will have to be revised. 
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